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余淼杰教授出席北京大学燕京学堂2019年开学典礼并作主旨演讲

北京大学燕京学堂2019年开学典礼于9月5日成功举办,出席开学典礼的有伦敦大学学院校董会主席、香港第一东方投资集团董事长诸立力、北京大学王博校长、燕京学堂院长袁明、人文社会科学研究院院长邓小南、人文社会科学研究院常务副院长渠敬东、北京大学国家发展研究院党委书记兼副院长余淼杰教授等。余淼杰教授作为燕京学堂教师代表对燕京学堂新生表示欢迎并作主旨演讲,下附余淼杰教授开学典礼演讲中英文稿。

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尊敬的诸主席,王博校长,袁院长,各位同事朋友以及2019级的新生们,早上好。我非常荣幸能够作为燕京学堂的教师代表在这个激动人心的时刻发言。首先欢迎各位来到燕京学堂。我相信在燕京学堂学习是你们这些年轻的杰出学者所做出的最正确和明智的选择之一,因为燕京学堂将是你了解中国、感受中国、学习中国的最佳平台之一。
众所周知,中国是一个历史悠久,文化灿烂的伟大国家。作为经济学家,今天我想与大家分享我对中国经济的看法。今天中国的国内生产总值约为90万亿人民币,相当于13.2万亿美元。中国已成为全球第二大经济体。中国的对外贸易额为30万亿人民币或4.62万亿美元,是世界上最大的贸易国。此外,在过去四十年中,中国的GDP年增长率仍保持在8%以上。
然而,在1949年中华人民共和国成立之前,中国确实是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。当时中国的人均国内生产总值甚至还不到撒哈拉以南的国家的人均国内生产总值的三分之一。但今天,中国的人均GDP接近一万美元,成为世界上的高中等收入国家。这是中国经济的第一个奇迹。
同样令人印象深刻的是,中国也实现了削减贫困的第二个奇迹。中国有13亿人口,但今天几乎没有中国人生活在每天两美元的绝对贫困线以下。中国居民的预期寿命也从1949年的40岁增加到今天的77岁。
因此,我们所有人的基本问题是理解中国如何实现这一目标。中国如何在70年内成功起飞?准确地说,中国如何在四十年内实现奇迹般的经济发展?同样重要的是,包括发展中国家和发达国家在内的其他国家是否可以借鉴中国前所未有的经验?
不同的学者对此有不同的看法。有人认为,中国的经济成功是因为中国人是勤奋的工作者。有人认为,中国的社会发展是由于亚洲特殊的文化特征和高边际储蓄倾向。有些人甚至认为中国的繁荣归功于纯粹的好运。
这些答案都有自己的道理,但仍然无法告诉我们中国奇迹最根本的秘密。中国人民在过去的五千年里一直很勤奋,但为什么我们在过去一百年没有看到经济增长?同样,中国人长期保持谨慎,但经济起飞主要发生在过去40年。同样,运气不能成为中国经济之谜的长期推动力。
对这个问题的合理回答是,中国的成功归功于其国内改革和对外开放。基于中国前30年建立的稳固和完整的工业类别体系,中国政府自1978年以来明智地参与全球供应链以拥抱全球化。在市场在资源配置中发挥至关重要的作用的同时,政府在促进贸易和投资方面也有效地发挥了作用。中国同时依靠市场和政府“两条腿”走路。在这“两条腿”的帮助下,中国能够通过在20世纪后期采用出口导向的发展战略实现其比较优势,并在中国自2001年加入世界贸易组织以后实现其较大的市场规模所带来的规模经济的回报。
不过,这也不应该是中国成功的全部方法。因为其他国家也在全球化时代开放国内市场。但为什么有些国家不那么成功甚至失败呢?中国奇迹的另一个秘密是中国的改革是务实的。中国的改革在问题导向与目标导向之间保持着良好的平衡。中国的改革在自上而下的顶层设计和“摸着石头过河”的探索中保持着良好的平衡。
当然,上述解释并不是中国经济成功和社会发展的全部原因,因为中国是如此之大,中国是如此多样化。但这些激动人心的问题,正是值得你们这些优秀的年轻学者探索的。我强烈建议你们在学习期间进行更多的实地考察,在中国各地旅行,调查农场和制造工厂,与工人,农民,企业家,教授,学生以及政府官员交谈。通过这种第一手调查和你们的学术研究,拓展视野的同时保持独立思考,你们将更好地了解这个生动又充满活力的土地。
所以燕京学堂是你们这些杰出的年轻学者去了解、探索、研究中国的最理想之地。在这里,你们很有可能会遇到对中国有深刻见解的不同学科的一流教授。在北京大学,你们还有充足的时间与来自全国的最优秀,最聪明的学生互动、交流。在这里,你们还可以享受美丽的皇家园林校园。所以,请允许我再次向你们致以最热烈的祝贺- 亲爱的新燕京学者!
“经济全球化和区域一体化为人们提供了丰富的交换商品、服务甚至想法的机会。与其他许多国家一样,中国的发展受益于经济全球化,同时中国也为世界经济增长做出了重大贡献。中国已经成为拉动全球经济增长最重要的火车头之一。今天,中国也与其他国家一起努力支持全球自由贸易体系。在全球自由贸易体系下,每个国家都将从贸易中获益。发达国家的人们可以以较低的成本享受更好的产品。发展中国家的人民会获得工作机会并消除贫困。贸易一体化和经济全球化是全球繁荣和世界和平的最基本机制之一。
中国的成功是前所未有的,但它可以被其他国家复制。当然,并不存在一种普适的模式。每个国家都有自己的文化和特色。不同国家也面临不同的发展阶段。然而,自第二次世界大战结束以来,寻求和平,繁荣和发展是世界各国人民的共同期盼。从这个意义上说,同一个世界,同一个梦想。
这也是我们所有燕京学者的梦想。我希望:我们在这里学习,不仅是为了更好的个人生活。我们在这里学习以消除无知,丰富我们的知识,更重要的是,为了整个人类。我们在这里学习,以帮助那些仍然处于贫困状态,仍然处于无知状态,以及那些仍然为生活所迫的人们。
因此,我希望每一位燕京学者都致力于建立人类命运共同体。只要天下还有一个贫穷的人,就是我们自己生活在贫穷中;只要天下还有一个苦难的人,就是我们自己煎熬在苦难中;请你们发现自己的非凡才能,带着责任与激情,为世界的和平与繁荣贡献自己的力量。
欢迎来到燕京学堂!
谢谢!


以下为演讲英文原文
Dear Chairman Chu, President Wang, Dean Yuan, Dean Deng, Professor Qu, Colleagues, Friends, and Class of 2019, Good morning! It is my great honor to speak here at this exciting moment on behalf of faculty members at the Yenching Academy. First welcome to Yenching Academy. I believe that studies in Yenching Academy is one of the smartest choices for young brilliant scholars like you, because Yenching Academy is one of the best platforms for you to understand China, to feel China, and to learn China.

It is well known that China is a great country with long history and splendor culture. As an economist, today I instead would like to share with you my observations on the Chinese economy. Today China’s GDP is around 90 trillion RMB, or equivalently, 13.2 trillion USD. China has already become the second largest economy in the world. China’s foreign trade is 30 trillion RMB or 4.62 trillion USD, and hence registers the largest trading country in the world. Moreover, China also maintained more than 8 percent annual GDP growth rate in the last four decades.

However, before 1949 when PRC was established, China indeed was one of the poorest countries in the world. China’s per-capita GDP is even less than one-third of per-capita GDP in those sub-Saharan countries. But today, China’s per-capita GDP is close to ten thousand US dollar, and firmly becomes an upper middle-income country in the world. This is the first miracle of the Chinese economy. 

Equally impressively, China also realizes its second miracle of poverty reductions. China has 1.3 billion people, but today almost no Chinese people live under the absolute poverty line with 2 dollars per day. The expected life length also increases from 40 years-old in 1949 to 77 years-old today.

So here the essential question for all of us is to understand how China make it. How China can successfully take-off within 7 decades? And precisely, how China can realize a mystery of economic development within forty years? Equally importantly, can other countries, including both developing and advanced countries, learn from China’s unprecedented experience? 

Different scholars have different views. Some argue that China’s economic success is because Chinese people are diligent hard-workers. Some believe that China’s social development is due to the special Asian cultural characteristics with high marginal propensity of saving. Some even just view China’s prosperity is due to purely good luck. 

These answers have their own wisdom, but still cannot tell us the most fundamental secret of China’s miracles. Chinese people were always diligent in the past 5 thousand years but why we did not see economic growth in the past hundred years? Similarly, Chinese people are precautious for long time but economic took-off mostly happens in the last 4 decades. By the same token, luck cannot be the long-run driving force of China’s economic mystery.

A plausible answer to the question is that China’s success is due to its domestic reform and foreign opening-up. Based on a system of solid and complete industrial categories established during PRC’s first 30 years, China’s government correctly engages in the global supply chain to embrace globalization since 1978. Market plays an essential role in resource allocation. Simultaneously, government also plays an effective role in facilitation of trade and investment. China keeps moving by two legs: market and government. With the assistance of these two legs, China is able to realize its comparative advantage by adopting an export-led development strategy in the late 20thcentury and fulfill its increasing returns to a large market scale since China’s access to the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Still, this should not be the whole recipes of China’s success. Because other countries also open up their domestic markets in the era of globalization. But why some nations are not so successful and even fail? Another secret of China’s miracle is China’s reform is pragmatic in a good way. China’s reform keeps a good balance between issue-driven motives and objective-driven motives. China’s reform maintains a fine trade-off between top-down design and cross-the-rivers-by-grasping-the stones. 

Certainly, the interpretation above is not the whole reasons of China’s economic success and social development, because China is so big, China is so heterogeneous, and China is so diverse. But this is exactly the exciting point for your young brilliant scholars to explore. I strongly recommend you having more field-trips during your study, travelling around the whole China, investigating the farms and manufacturing plants, talking with workers, farmers, entrepreneurs, professors, students, and also government officials. Armed with such first-hand investigation and your academic research, opening your eyes and keeping independent thinking, you will have a better understanding of this vivid and dynamic land.

So Yenching Academy is the most ideal place for brilliant young scholars like you to realize such an opportunity. Here you have great chances to meet first-class professors in different disciplines who deeply understand China. Here, at Peking University, you also have plenty of time to interact with best and smartest students from the whole country. Here, you also have wonderful moments to enjoy the beautiful royal-courtyard campus. So, once again, please allow me to extend my warmest congratulations to you--dear new Yenching scholars!

Economic globalization and regional integration offer rich opportunity for people to exchange goods, service, and even ideas. On the one hand, as many other countries, China is beneficial from economic globalization. On the other hand, China also makes significant contribution to the world economic growth. China has already become one of the most important locomotives of global economic growth. Today China also works hard with other countries to support for the global free-trade system. With this system, every country gains from trade. People in the advanced countries enjoy better products at lower costs. People in the developing world find the job opportunity and eliminate poverty. Trade integration and economic globalization is one of the most fundamental mechanisms for the global prosperity and world peace.

So China’s success is unprecedented, but it can be copied by other countries. Certainly, one size does not fit all. Every country has its own culture and unique features. Different countries also face different development stages. However, since the end of the Second World War, the quests for peace, prosperity, and development have become the common dream for people in all countries. In this sense,we are in one world with one dream. 

This is also the dream for all our Yenching scholars. I hope. We study here, not only for a better personal life. We study here for eliminating ignorance, for enriching our knowledge, but more importantly, for working for mankind. We study here to help people who are still in poor, who are still in ignorance, and who are still struggling in the dark side of their lives.

So, I hope that every Yenching scholars to devote yourselves to a community of shared future for mankind. If a person in this world is still poor, as we were. If a person in this globe still feel cold, as we done. Please discover your extraordinary talents, driven by passions and responsibility, to make the world a peaceful and prosperous place!

Welcome to Yenching Academy!

Thank you.